Application of species distribution models to estimate and manage the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) habitat in the Hindu Kush Mountains, Pakistan

Identification and assessment of habitat suitability are essential to the conservation of threatened species such as the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in Pakistan. Regionally, for example, in the Hindu Kush Mountains, there has been growing public concern regarding negative impacts on the bears’ natural habitats due to land use and climate change. Many of the efforts to identify and conserve suitable habitats are based on limited data and have been unable to accurately predict habitat preferences. This study aims to fill this gap by developing predictive models for U. thibetanus based on the integration of new occurrences and climate and land cover data. We installed camera traps in 81 different locations across a gradient of elevation. Over the duration of 413 trap nights, we collected 110 different bear detections at 31 camera stations. The bear favored densely forested regions between 1,835 m and 3,348 m above sea level, with a catch rate of 26.6/100 trap nights. Our models demonstrated high levels of prediction accuracy (AUC > 0.97) and predicted that 43% of the total area would make a good habitat for bears. The mean temperature of coldest quarter, normalized difference vegetation index, and annual mean temperature were the main determinants of habitat suitability. The findings of this study, which is the first to map the current distribution and suitable habitat of the Asiatic black bear in the Hindu Kush Mountain Range, contribute new localscale habitat suitability data to the study of bears in Swat Valley, Pakistan. Our results may be used to provide important conservation information for U. thibetanus that is useful to policymakers for improving future management planning.