Early possible risk factors for overt diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus

OBJECTIVE: To assess a cluster of risk factors, including parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) early after delivery, that features the best prediction for developing diabetes. METHODS: Women with GDM 3-6 months after delivery received a complete metabolic characterization at baseline as well as annually for up to 10 years of follow-up (N=110). We used parameters characterizing the metabolic syndrome as well as demographic variables at baseline to predict diabetes manifestation. RESULTS: Metabolic disturbances and insulin treatment during pregnancy were significantly associated with overt diabetes. Waist circumference of 80 cm or higher failed to show a significant effect on later development of the disease; however, it was significant when 88 cm or more was used as a cutoff value. We identified impaired glucose tolerance (13 [56.5%]; hazard ratio 6.77, confidence interval [CI] 2.96-15.45, P<.001) as well as high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol less than 50 mg/dL (14 [60.9%]; hazard ratio 2.88, CI 1.24-6.67, P=.010) and age older than 35 years (12 [52.2%]; hazard ratio 3.06, CI 1.32-7.12, P=.006) as the best predictors with additive effects. Women with at least two risk factors had a higher risk to develop the disease as compared with those women who showed only one risk factor (hazard ratio 3.2, CI 1.4-7.7, P=.008). CONCLUSION: Impaired glucose tolerance, HDL cholesterol less than 50 mg/dL, and age older than 35 years were identified as the best predictors of developing diabetes after GDM.