Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming

© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press and the Society for Experimental Biology. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Volume 11 • 2023 10.1093/conphys/coad094 Research article Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming Giovanni Quattrocchi1,*, Emil Christensen2,3, Matteo Sinerchia1, Stefano Marras1, Andrea Cucco1, Paolo Domenici1,4 and Jane W. Behrens2 1 National Research Council, Institute for the study of the Anthropic Impact and Sustainability in the marine environment, Loc. Sa Mardini, 09170, Oristano, Italy 2 National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 3 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom 4 National Research Council, Istituto di Biofisica, Pisa, Italy *Corresponding author: National Research Council, Institute for the study of the Anthropic Impact and Sustainability in the marine environment, Loc. Sa Mardini, 09170, Oristano, Italy. Email: giovanni.quattrocchi@cnr.it .......................................................................................................................................................... Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world’s large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.