Statistical and Independent Component Analysis of Sentinel-1 InSAR Time Series to Assess Land Subsidence Trends

Advanced statistics can enable the detailed characterization of ground deformation time series, which is a fundamental step for thoroughly understanding the phenomena of land subsidence and their main drivers. This study presents a novel methodological approach based on pre-existing open-access statistical tools to exploit satellite differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) data to investigate land subsidence processes, using European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) Sentinel-1 DInSAR 2018−2022 datasets. The workflow involves the implementation of Persistent Scatterers (PS) time series classification through the PS-Time tool, deformation signal decomposition via independent component analysis (ICA), and drivers’ investigation through spatio-temporal correlation with geospatial and monitoring data. Subsidence time series at the three demonstration sites of Bologna, Ravenna and Carpi (Po Plain, Italy) were classified into linear and nonlinear (quadratic, discontinuous, uncorrelated) categories, and the mixed deformation signal of each PS was decomposed into independent components, allowing the identification of new spatial clusters with linear, accelerating/decelerating, and seasonal trends. The relationship between the different independent components and DInSAR-derived displacement velocity, acceleration, and seasonality was also analyzed via regression analysis. Correlation with geological and groundwater monitoring data supported the investigation of the relationship between the observed deformation and subsidence drivers, such as aquifer resource exploitation, local geological setting, and gas extraction/reinjection.