Climate change and ecological assessment in Europe under the WFD – Hitting moving targets with shifting baselines?

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) sets the fundamental structure for assessing the status of water bodies in the European Union. Its implementation is currently entering its fourth six-year cycle assisted by a total of 38 guidance documents. The principal objective is to ensure good status for surface and ground waters. The functioning of the WFD is based on detecting the impact of human pressures on biological, physico-chemical, or hydromorphological parameters, and reducing these causal pressures through a program of measures to achieve good status. Climate change can exert a significant influence on ecological status by directly altering parameters monitored, pressure interactions, or influencing the effectiveness of programs of measures. Aquatic systems respond holistically to climate change with different pressures having additive, synergistic, or antagonistic interactions. The challenge is how to adapt the framework to manage aquatic systems in the context of climate change while maintaining focus on implementing measures to tackle key pressures. This paper examines potential approaches, including reassignment of waterbody type, quantifying the portion of Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) driven by climate change, and creating an assessment module of climatic pressures and ecological responses. The overall purpose is to stimulate discussion and explore ways to incorporate climate change into the WFD structure.