Modelling approach integrating climate projections for coastal groundwater management

Climate change and excessive groundwater extraction are major contributors to rising groundwater salinization due to seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. This study aims to define a wide-applicable approach in which hydrological balance, boundary conditions, and irrigation water demand, defined over time considering climate change predictions, can integrated into a numerical model of the groundwater system. The approach was tested in a selected coastal aquifer. The approach spans from the past, used to define steady or almost natural conditions for calibration purposes (1950–2000 in the test), to the future (2100), divided in decade steps. The water balance analysis is based on an inverse hydrogeological water balance approach. The future climate change predictions are used to assess variations in boundary conditions of the groundwater model concerning salinity and sea level, recharge, and inflow from upstream aquifers. The approach considers changes in agricultural activities, groundwater demand, and river stage. The regional model is generated using the MODFLOW code for the groundwater flow model and the SEAWAT code for the salt transport model. The test concerns the Metaponto coastal plain, in which a porous aquifer is at salinization risk due to seawater intrusion. In this way, different influences of climate change and human activities are combined to define a 3d view of groundwater depletion and salinization effects. Quantifying these potential effects or risks, adaptation scenarios with numerical assessments are outlined in this study.