The more the better? How degree programs’ variety affects university students’ churn risk

Students’ intra- and, especially, inter-degree relocation poses significant challenges that tertiary education systems and universities must address to identify the best possible solutions for its reduction. Indeed, this phenomenon has a major impact on several aspects, from the reallocation of financial resources to factors related to the organization of spaces and activities, as well as in terms of human and social capital. Moreover, it is much more challenging when involving different universities in different geographical areas. This paper addresses the issue of churn risk among students and its relationship with the institutions’ educational offerings, in terms of degree programs, by accounting for the impact of the characteristics of both universities and hosting areas. In particular, the analysis relies on Italian administrative data regarding students who decide to change university or field of study when enrolling in their second year of career. The results obtained performing the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation show that the variety and the dimension of universities’ services supply contribute to reducing students’ churn risks and are positively associated with universities’ retention rates.