Mathematical Model of Glucagon Kinetics for the Assessment of Insulin-Mediated Glucagon Inhibition During an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test

Glucagon is secreted from the pancreatic alpha cells and plays an important role in the maintenance of glucose homeostasis, by interacting with insulin. The plasma glucose levels determine whether glucagon secretion or insulin secretion is activated or inhibited. Despite its relevance, some aspects of glucagon secretion and kinetics remain unclear. To gain insight into this, we aimed to develop a mathematical model of the glucagon kinetics during an oral glucose tolerance test, which is sufficiently simple to be used in the clinical practice. The proposed model included two first-order differential equations -one describing glucagon and the other describing C-peptide in a compartment remote from plasma - and yielded a parameter of possible clinical relevance (i.e., SGLUCA(t), glucagon-inhibition sensitivity to glucose-induced insulin secretion). Model was validated on mean glucagon data derived from the scientific literature, yielding values for SGLUCA(t) ranging from -15.03 to 2.75 (ng of glucagon·nmol of C-peptide-1). A further validation on a total of 100 virtual subjects provided reliable results (mean residuals between -1.5 and 1.5 ng·L-1) and a negative significant linear correlation (r = -0.74, p < 0.0001, 95% CI: -0.82 – -0.64) between SGLUCA(t) and the ratio between the areas under the curve of suprabasal remote C-peptide and glucagon. Model reliability was also proven by the ability to capture different patterns in glucagon kinetics. In conclusion, the proposed model reliably reproduces glucagon kinetics and is characterized by sufficient simplicity to be possibly used in the clinical practice, for the estimation in the single individual of some glucagon-related parameters.