Path-loss analysis in anomalous electromagnetic propagation conditions over oceans induced by climate change: preliminary results

Climate change (CC) is leading to unprecedented changes to the whole Earth ecosystem, including the oceanic and atmospheric domains. In the last decade, some studies have analysed the impact of CC on underwater acoustic communication systems, e.g., [1]. Conversely, very little work on the effects of CC on the performance of microwave-based technologies, such as radar and wireless telecommunication systems, has been carried out, mainly devoted to rainfall impact [2]. Consequently, the potential effects of CC on such technologies remain rather unexplored. Indeed, it is expected that CC will lead to significant changes in the atmospheric structure and parameters, including the intensity and rate of anomalous conditions, such as atmospheric ducts. This work aims at trying to fill this gap and address the potential impact of expected changes in atmospheric ducts on electromagnetic (EM) propagation at microwaves. To this end, we made use of both reliable EM propagation numerical solvers [3] and simplified closed-form path-loss models able to account for duct height and strength [4]. The EM propagation numerical solvers use in input climate atmospheric data for historical and future periods provided by ERA5 [5] and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) outputs [6]. Preliminary investigations have revealed that such parameters might have a major impact on EM propagation. First results of our analysis will be included in the extended abstract.