The development planning of the Italian Mezzogiorno: a statistical-mathematical analysis by a Real Business Cycle model

Since the 1950s, the regions of the Italian South (Mezzogiorno) have benefited from large in-kind transfers (namely, the provision of goods and services financed by the richer Northern regions) with the aim of favouring their economic development. The research aim of this manuscript is to evaluate this planning strategy, namely, to understand whether the territorial transfers boost the Mezzogiorno's development or, on the contrary, whether the crowding-out effect of the final government expenditure on private investment and household consumption is the reason for the longstanding low growth of this geographical area. To accomplish this goal, the authors write down and solve an appropriate Real Business Cycle model and carry out some stochastic simulations. Their findings demonstrate that the in-kind transfer strategy entails no benefits for the Southern regions. In addition, the authors, using an alternative specification of their baseline setting, document that an alternative approach based on infrastructural investment is effective in stimulating the long-term economic growth of the Italian South.