Evaluation of cut-off values in the control of land take in Italy towards the SDGs 2030

Over the last few years, land take monitoring in Europe and in Italy has become increasingly accurate and detailed owing to improved technologies that help acquire and make available free, easily accessible and high-resolution data. Nevertheless, the key issue is controlling this phenomenon, long considered pathological in its current form and scale, in order to mitigate / reverse it and achieve the 2030 containment targets set in international guidelines. To attain these results, firm regulatory action is certainly needed, underpinned by thresholds and reference limits to regulate the development of transformation activities planned by local authorities. In 2015, the United Nations Global Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) put forward a parameter for this purpose, namely the “Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate” (11.3.1 LCRPGR). It monitors the ratio between the extent of urban development and demographic dynamics in spatial-administrative units in order to link the growth of urbanized areas to actual population growth. This paper sets out a reconnaissance experiment to identify LCRPGR cut-off that can be used in legislation in relation to life quality indicators calculated repeatedly for Italy at the provincial level. The conclusions highlight the considerable difficulty inherent in identifying normative thresholds for the containment of negative spatial and social phenomena, and the need to develop scientific methods that are more reliable and robust than what is present in current practice.