Orbital evolution of a Molniya fragmentation

The aim of this work is to characterize the dynamical evolution of a cloud of fragments, that we assume has originated in Molniya orbit. The methodology consists in simulating explosion events at different epochs and initial conditions, using the NASA breakup model and then propagating the resulting cloud under a full dynamical model. The propagation is performed over different time intervals to evaluate the possible different phases of the cloud evolution and compare the outcome with a classical fragmentation in Low Earth Orbit. To start the simulation, we consider the orbits of real satellites in Molniya, by analyzing historical TLE series and their nominal evolution. Cases of interest are those such that the semi-major axis has not changed in decades; cases whose semi-major axis has decreased significantly due to the atmospheric drag; cases affected by a mild chaotic behavior in semi-major axis. The analysis can drive dedicated observational campaigns on the region and can be relevant for other fragmentations in Highly Elliptical Orbits.