In recent years, the global spread of novel infectious diseases has become a significant concern at all levels of the society. The existence of a capillary transport network that facilitates the transmission of the diseases is a particular factor whose relevance cannot be underestimated. In fact, to try to slow down the spread of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many governments adopted control measures that directly included travel restrictions. These measures, while undoubtedly effective, also had deleterious political and societal effects. In this article, we introduce an event-trigger mechanism in the decision-making framework for the mitigation of epidemics via transport management. Using our approach, we demonstrate that one can develop restriction policies in a controlled manner, so that the economic side effects remain tolerable. When applied to the COVID-19 pandemic data in Germany, our method shows better performance than the measures that were actually implemented.

Flexible mitigation of epidemics by transport management

Boccaletti, Stefano;
2025

Abstract

In recent years, the global spread of novel infectious diseases has become a significant concern at all levels of the society. The existence of a capillary transport network that facilitates the transmission of the diseases is a particular factor whose relevance cannot be underestimated. In fact, to try to slow down the spread of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, many governments adopted control measures that directly included travel restrictions. These measures, while undoubtedly effective, also had deleterious political and societal effects. In this article, we introduce an event-trigger mechanism in the decision-making framework for the mitigation of epidemics via transport management. Using our approach, we demonstrate that one can develop restriction policies in a controlled manner, so that the economic side effects remain tolerable. When applied to the COVID-19 pandemic data in Germany, our method shows better performance than the measures that were actually implemented.
2025
Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - ISC
Control
Epidemic mitigation
Non-pharmaceutical interventions
Optimization
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/544644
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