Modeling and Simulating the Italian Wheat Production System: A Parallel Agent-Based Model to Evaluate the Sustainability of Policies

This work presents the modeling steps to build a tool for policymakers to orient policies toward more sustainable wheat production. Starting from a sample survey of Italian farms, we identify, with the help of clustering techniques, the farm types present in the sample. The clustering phase reveals a significant heterogeneity among farms that we handle building an agent-based model. Sampling from the clusters allows for including a number of farms comparable to those operating in Italy in the agent-based model. Moreover, we build a mathematical programming model with which farms (i.e., agents) decide the target production level and the mix of inputs needed to obtain such production. Considered inputs are 1) the use of fertilizers, 2) the use of herbicides, and 3) the use of pesticides. Policies are introduced as incentives or deterrents, driving production decisions and the input mix choice towards more sustainable production.