Food and Water Security in the Mediterranean: Geopolitical Challenges in a Context of Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

The growing geopolitical fragmentation and escalating resource-driven conflicts have placed food and water security at the centre of global strategic concerns. Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) are among the most food-import-dependent regions globally, and their reliance is projected to increase due to population growth, shifting consumption patterns, and the scarcity of arable land and freshwater resources. Recent food price crises (2007-08, 2010-11, 2020-22, and ongoing volatility in 2023-24) demonstrated the region’s vulnerability to market fluctuations, geopolitical instability, climate change, and trade disruptions, exposing national economies to instability and intensifying social unrest. This study explores the water-food nexus in SEMCs, emphasizing its geopolitical implications. The promotion of water-intensive agricultural practices has led to unsustainable production models, increasing dependence on food imports and intensifying the strain on limited water resources. The impact of climate change exacerbates these vulnerabilities, reducing rainfall, increasing temperatures, and threatening traditional farming systems. Beyond food security, the study investigates hydropolitical tensions in SEMCs, analysing disputes over transboundary water resources such as the Nile, Tigris-Euphrates basin, and non-renewable fossil aquifers. Large-scale dam and irrigation projects have become instruments of geopolitical influence, reshaping regional power dynamics and increasing competition over scarce water supplies. To address these challenges, the study advocates for sustainable agricultural transformation in SEMCs, focusing on water-saving technologies, policy reforms, and strengthened regional cooperation. A climate-resilient “green revolution” is essential to adapting to water scarcity, reducing food insecurity, and preventing future crises driven by geopolitical rivalries and resource competition. A descriptive analysis will outline the current state of food and water security in SEMCs, highlighting how arid climates, water scarcity, and political instability compound their challenges. Given these countries’ unfavourable geographic conditions for resource supply, there is an urgent need for policies that improve access to water and food and enhance living conditions. Descriptive data is key to understanding and addressing the current emergency, which is further intensified by recent geopolitical conflicts.