Elevated extinction risk of sea moths under climate change

Climate change is increasingly associated with global biodiversity loss; therefore, it is essential to account for the threat of climate change when assessing species conservation status. Neglecting the effects of climate change may lead to a biased assessment of the extinction risk of focal species and misguided conservation strategies. In this study, we evaluated the extinction risk of five marine sea moth species under climate change by integrating the IUCN Red List Assessment criterion A3c and redistribution projection via species distribution models. These models showed relatively good predictive abilities and accurately described the spatial distributions of sea moths. Model projections indicated that future climate change would lead to the redistribution of sea moths and considerable range contractions especially in the Indo-Pacific. Because of climate-driven range shifts, sea moths were expected to face an increased extinction risk in the future. Our findings indicate that neglecting the threat of climate change might lead to underestimating the extinction risk faced by marine species. This has important implications for assessing or updating the extinction risk status of marine species and designing conservation measures.