The Geoeconomics of Energy in the Mediterranean: Demand, Supply, and the Nexus between Geopolitical Risk and Energy Security

The Mediterranean basin includes countries positioned at a critical crossroads of energy supply, demand and geopolitical dynamics, making it a strategic area for examining the interplay between geoeconomics and energy security. This study analyses patterns of energy demand and supply across Mediterranean countries, with a particular focus on fossil fuel import dependency, the potential for renewable energy development, and the geographical and economic factors influencing regional energy markets. It explores the impact of geopolitical risks – including regional conflicts, territorial disputes and disruptions to key energy transit routes – on energy security, highlighting the asymmetric vulnerabilities faced by both energy-importing and energy-exporting nations. Special attention is given to the geopolitical dimension of energy trade, as strategic partnerships with MENA countries, China, the United States, Russia and Mediterranean Europe increasingly reshape power relations across the region. The study also introduces a Mediterranean Energy Transition Index (METI), constructed through Principal Component Analysis, to assess national sustainability profiles and progress toward decarbonisation. Overall, the paper offers valuable insights into how Mediterranean countries are navigating the complex nexus of energy security, energy transition and geopolitical realignment in an era marked by uncertainty and transformation.