Genetic diversity hotspot at the edge of the species range: integrating plastome phylogeography with ecological niche modelling for the conservation of Ulmus glabra Huds. in the Italian peninsula

The Italian peninsula is a widely recognised genetic diversity hotspot and one of the main glacial refugia for European temperate trees, which are now increasingly threatened by climate change, anthropogenic pressure, and pathogens. This study, focusing on the wych elm (Ulmus glabra) in its Italian range, integrated plastome phylogeography with lineage-based ecological niche modelling (ENM) and protected area gap analysis, aiming at: (1) reconstructing the evolutionary history of the species and identifying main phylogenetic lineages; (2) assessing habitat suitability and evaluating the impacts of climate change on each lineage; (3) performing a spatially explicit conservation assessment, incorporating genetic and ecological information.