Uncertainties in wave energy potential estimation: case study at MARELAB

Accurate and reliable wave resource characterization is crucial for assessing the feasibility and energy potential of wave energy technologies. Reanalysis models like ERA5 are commonly used for preliminary assessments, but their inherent uncertainties, particularly in regions like the Mediterranean, require careful consideration. This study quantifies the divergences between the ERA5 data and in-situ measurements from MaRELab, located in the Gulf of Naples, Italy, to evaluate their impact on wave energy potential estimations. The MaRELab instrumentation, including a DWSD-type wave buoy and an ADCP, provides essential data for understanding local wave dynamics. A statistical analysis, using metrics such as mean error, RMSE, and correlation coefficients, assesses the agreement between ERA5 and observed data, focusing on significant wave height and peak period. The research highlights potential errors in wave energy assessments when relying solely on ERA5 in regions with unique meteo-climatic conditions. By examining these discrepancies, the study aims to improve the accuracy of resource assessments, supporting informed decisions in the development of wave energy projects. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for uncertainties in preliminary feasibility studies, especially when only reanalysis data are available.