Shaken Politics: The Electoral Outcomes of Disasters and Social Capital

We study the electoral repercussions of the L'Aquila earthquake in 2009, one of Italy's most catastrophic post-WWII seismic events. We construct a unique municipality-level dataset, combining high-resolution data on the ground acceleration recorded during the earthquake with European election results and social capital metrics. Our findings indicate that the intensity of the shock positively influenced support for the incumbent national government but provided no electoral advantage to local incumbents. Analyzing potential transmission mechanisms, we find that relief measures did not automatically translate into political rewards. Instead, turnout dynamics and what we term emergency social capital—the density of civic organizations involved in social assistance, volunteering, and disaster management—played a pivotal role in shaping post-disaster electoral outcomes. In left-leaning municipalities, greater exposure to the shock was associated with both a decline in turnout and an improved performance of the incumbent government. Moreover, the incumbent's electoral gains increased with the ground acceleration only in municipalities with low emergency social capital, where citizens relied primarily on political institutions for assistance. Individual-level evidence from survey data further supports our findings. Nonetheless, the impact of the earthquake was not enduring. In the subsequent elections, the incumbent government experienced a decline in support in the very municipalities where it had initially gained favor following the disaster. Overall, our evidence paints a picture of disillusionment with the incumbent's response and promises.