Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

The time fluctuations of forest fires occurring in Basilicata, a region situated in Southern Italy, between 2004 and 2023 were investigated using various analytical approaches. Analysis revealed a clustering of fire occurrences over time, as indicated by a significantly high coefficient of variation. This suggests that the fire sequence does not follow a Poisson distribution and instead exhibits a clustered structure, largely driven by the heightened frequency of events during the summer seasons. The analysis of monthly forest fire occurrences and total burned area indicates a significant correlation between the two. This correlation is reinforced by shared patterns, notably an annual cycle that appears to be influenced by meteorological factors, aligning with the yearly fluctuations in the region's weather conditions typical of a Mediterranean climate. Furthermore, the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and forest fires revealed that the accumulation period of the SPEI corresponds to the cycle length of the fires: longer cycles in fire occurrences align with higher accumulation periods in SPEI data.