Temporal trends in the probability of melanoma diagnosis in four Nordic countries, 1973–1999

In the last decades, melanoma incidence has been rising in many countries, e.g., in Northern Europe, where rates are among the highest despite high latitudes. Using population incidence and demographic data from the NORDCAN database, we estimate the 5-year probability of melanoma diagnosis in 1973-1999. We consider individuals aged 30-54 years, grouped by calendar year and 5-year age group. We analyse temporal patterns to detect possible differences among countries and local deviations from the overall increasing trend in melanoma risk. Across nearly all age groups and Nordic countries, except Sweden, we observe localized peaks interrupting the monotonic increase pattern of risk over time. The locations of the peaks of different age groups are consistently associated with individuals born during or shortly after World War II. These findings suggest a possible long-term impact on melanoma risk from early-life body stressors, including dietary restrictions.