Afforestation priority for multiple objectives at national scale: Italy as a case study

Introduction: Afforestation is increasingly recognized as a key strategy to address climate change and ecological degradation, offering multiple ecosystem services. However, strategic planning is needed to ensure that afforestation actions are ecologically effective and economically ef cient by targeting areas where ecosystem service provision is most signi cant. Objectives: In this study, we provide a work ow to prioritize afforestation areas at national scale tailored to four distinct ecosystem service goals: ecological connectivity, human health, climate mitigation, and water regulation. Methods: Using Italy as a case study, we applied goal-speci c analysis to areas considered suitable for afforestation, integrating geos- patial datasets of environmental and social factors. For each objective, spatial indicators were combined into a priority map at 1 km resolution, subsequently aggregated into composite maps. The top 20% priority areas for each objective were identi ed to inform national and regional planning. Results: High-priority areas to improve ecological connectivity were focused around urban centers and extensive agricultural plains. Water regulation bene ts were most relevant in urbanized and vineyard landscapes, while urban areas also emerged as priorities for human health. Climate mitigation potential was highest in moist temperate and mountain regions. Overlap among goals was limited, revealing signi cant trade-offs across ecosystem services. Conclusions: The work ow provides a replicable approach to identify goal-speci c afforestation priorities across diverse landscapes. It supports coordinated strategies to enhance ecosystem service provision and restoration effectiveness at national and regional levels. Implications for Practice: Goal-speci c afforestation planning can maximize ecological bene ts, cost-effectiveness, and policy impact. By identifying priority areas for different ecosystem services, the work ow helps practitioners target interventions where they yield the greatest bene ts. The identi cation of urban and agricultural zones as key opportunities for multifunctional interventions sup- ports the integration of urban forestry and agroforestry into restoration strategies. The limited overlap among goals underscores the need to explicitly balance trade-offs when designing multi-objective restoration programs. The work ow is readily adaptable to other European countries, thanks to the availability of large-scale spatial datasets, offering a practical decision-support tool for policymakers and practitioners engaged in forest landscape restoration.