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Forecasting and Backcasting to Manage the Changes: an Anticipatory View

Bianchi N;Soncin G
2002
2002
Istituto di Studi sui Sistemi Intelligenti per l'Automazione - ISSIA - Sede Bari
11
29
42
Sì, ma tipo non specificato
Backcasting
System Dynamics
Social Systems
Social Change
Anticipatory Systems
After a brief reference to System Dynamics approaches and Backcasting techniques applied in the simulation problem of strategic support to policy-making, a heuristic procedure is proposed involving forecasting and backcasting, through optimal cost indices. Recalling the basic concepts of anticipation and hysteresis, this procedure, formerly dealt with System Dynamics, is then reconsidered in terms of discrete Anticipatory Systems. Finally, the feasibility of hyperincursive anticipatory model application is discussed about solving the problem of some simulation difficulties, also with middleware development, and providing transparent interoperability to ease the preliminary acceptance of social changes by stakeholders.
2
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
262
Bianchi N. ; Soncin G.
01 Contributo su Rivista::01.01 Articolo in rivista
none
01.01 Articolo in rivista
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/82701
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