ADAPTATION TO FUTURE CLIMATE OF MAIZE CROP IN SOUTHERN ITALY EXAMINED USING THERMAL SUMS

The prediction of crop phenology in the future climate is useful to identify options of agriculture adaptation to climate change.In this work, thermal sums were used to estimate phenological stages of a maize crop in the Sele Plain (Campania, Italy)under different climate scenarios, taking into account different sowing date options. Risks of heat spells during floweringwere also evaluated. This analysis indicates a trend towards an earlier optimal sowing date and shorter growing seasons for 3maize varieties of different maturity classes. It shows, moreover, that earlier sowing will not avoid risks of critical temperaturesduring flowering.