Effective gene flow in a historically fragmented area at the southern edge of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) distribution

ragmented populations at the edges of a species' distribution can be highly exposed to the loss of genetic variation, unless sufficient gene flow maintains their genetic connectivity. Gene movements leading to successful establishment of external gametes (i.e. effective gene flow) into fragmented populations can solely be assessed by investigating the origin of natural regeneration. This study is focused on studying gene flow patterns in two silver fir stands in Central Apennines, where the species has a highly fragmented distribution. By using nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers, we investigated genetic variation, fine-scale spatial genetic structure, effective gene flow rates and large-scale connectivity characterizing both stands. Similar levels of genetic variation and low genetic differentiation between stands (FST = 0.005) and across generations were found, coupled with low inbreeding and weak to absent SGS in the adult cohort (Sp < 0.003). On the other hand, substantial differences between the two stands in terms of gene flow rates were observed. Irrespective of the parentage approach used, higher gene flow rates were found in the stand located at the upper silver fir altitudinal limit, especially for seed-mediated gene flow (0.79 in the upper stand vs. 0.48 in the lower stand). Conversely, the lower stand was characterized by a higher reproductive dominance of local adults. Our findings suggest that, despite similar levels of genetic variation and generally high gene flow rates, different processes may be acting on the two stands, reflecting varying ecological conditions