ADATTAMENTO DI SISTEMI COLTURALI ITALIANI AL CLIMA FUTURO: IL POTENZIALE DELLA BIODIVERSITA' INTRA-SPECIFICA

Food production is already being negatively affected by climate change and climate trends are determining water shortages in many parts of the world, including southern Europe. Agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation and water resources which are, in turn, tightly coupled to climate variability. In Mediterranean environments a significant determinant of the sensitivity of a production system is crop response to water stress. Sensitivity can be reduced by interventions on crops, and intra-specific differences in yield response to water availability need to be investigated to identify options for adaptation to projected climatic conditions. The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops, in fact, is very significant (Elia et al., 2013) and can provide a major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on crop systems. In irrigated agriculture sensitivity can be reduced through changes in irrigation management; however, in face of the predicted changes in water resources availability and in agricultural water demand, irrigation strategies need to be optimized. The study therefore addresses the biophysical dimension of crop adaptation. An approach (Menenti et al. 2008, 2015) is applied to evaluate options for adaptation by identifying cultivars optimally adapted to expected climatic conditions, building on existing crop intra-specific biodiversity. The aim is to remove or at least reduce the vulnerability of current production systems without altering the pattern of current species and cultivation systems.