Forecasting alpine glacier evolution at the seasonal/multiannual scale

For application purposes (in particular water resources management and planning) it is crucial to rely on accurate predictions of the evolution of glaciers on short time scales (from seasonal to multi-annual). This is one of the aims of the MEDSCOPE project in the framework of the ERA4CS initiative: seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts, produced and downscaled by the project, are used to estimate the evolution of glaciers in selected areas of the Western Italian Alps. For this purpose, empirical glacier models have been calibrated with historical observational data of glacier front fluctuation and mass balance for five glaciers, characterized by different morphology and topoclimatic setting, in the Western Italian Alps. The models will be forced with the seasonal, downscaled forecasts, in order to assess the added value provided by MEDSCOPE to climate services for water management.