Predicting the evolution of ice and snow resources at seasonal time scales

Based on long-term climate predictions, cryosphere in the Alps is expected to be seriously affected by climate change, with significant consequences for water resources management. In such a context, increasing resilience of the society to climate variability by means of reliable and accurate predictions is crucial. The MEDSCOPE project, in the framework of ERA4CS initiative, aims at creating and providing prototypes of climate services addressing users' needs in specific sectors in the Mediterranean region. As part of the project, the added value provided by MEDSCOPE to climate services will be assessed for the hydrological sector and resources in the Italian Alps and for selected glaciated areas. Downscaled climate variables will be employed to force a minimal glacier model calibrated with historical data and a physically-based multilayer snowpack model, in three different glaciated basins in the North-western Italian Alps. Outputs of the numerical models, based on seasonal forecasts provided by the project, will be compared to the existing observations for glacier front position change and glacier mass balance and to the available data on Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and snow depth recorded by the automatic weather stations in the study areas. Preliminary outcomes of this work will be showcased at the Conference.