Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.
Some fractal thoughts about the COVID-19 infection outbreak
Massimo Materassi
2020
Abstract
Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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