Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.

Some fractal thoughts about the COVID-19 infection outbreak

Massimo Materassi
2020

Abstract

Some ideas are presented about a geometric motivation of the apparent ca-pacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of quite manyepidemics, possibly including that of the COVID-19 infection. This interpre-tation pivots on the complex, possibly fractal, structure of the locus describ-ing the "contagion event set", and on what can be learnt from the models oftrophic webs with "herd behaviour".Under the hypothesis that the total number of cases, as a function oftime, is fitted by a solution of the Generalized Richards Model, it is arguedthat the exponents appearing in that differential equation, usually deter-mined empirically, represent the geometric signature of the non-space filling,network-like locus on which contagious contacts take place.
2020
Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - ISC
COVID-19
herd behaviour in population dynanics
logistic equation
Richards Model
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/409611
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