Application of machine learning techniques to simulate the evaporative fraction and its relationship with environmental variables in corn crops

Background: The evaporative fraction (EF) represents an important biophysical parameter refecting the distribution of surface available energy. In this study, we investigated the daily and seasonal patterns of EF in a multi-yearcorn cultivation located in southern Italy and evaluated the performance of fve machine learning (ML) classes ofalgorithms: the linear regression (LR), regression tree (RT), support vector machine (SVM), ensembles of tree (ETs) andGaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the EF at daily time step. The adopted methodology consisted of threemain steps that include: (i) selection of the EF predictors; (ii) comparison of the diferent classes of ML; (iii) application,cross-validation of the selected ML algorithms and comparison with the observed data.Results: Our results indicate that SVM and GPR were the best classes of ML at predicting the EF, with a total of fourdiferent algorithms: cubic SVM, medium Gaussian SVM, the Matern 5/2 GPR, and the rational quadratic GPR. The comparison between observed and predicted EF in all four algorithms, during the training phase, were within the 95%confdence interval: the R2 value between observed and predicted EF was 0.76 (RMSE 0.05) for the medium GaussianSVM, 0.99 (RMSE 0.01) for the rational quadratic GPR, 0.94 (RMSE 0.02) for the Matern 5/2 GPR, and 0.83 (RMSE 0.05) forthe cubic SVM algorithms. Similar results were obtained during the testing phase. The results of the cross-validationanalysis indicate that the R2 values obtained between all iterations for each of the four adopted ML algorithms werebasically constant, confrming the ability of ML as a tool to predict EF.Conclusion: ML algorithms represent a valid alternative able to predict the EF especially when remote sensing dataare not available, or the sky conditions are not suitable. The application to diferent geographical areas, or crops,requires further development of the model based on diferent data sources of soils, climate, and cropping systems