In the reliability analysis of a repairable system a problem often encountered concerns making a forecast about the mth future failure time, given that the first n failure times have been observed. A very interesting mathematical idealization for the underlying failure pattern is the Non-homogeneous Poisson Process with a power intensity law. In this paper point estimators, based upon maximum likelihood principle, are derived for the future failure times of such a process. Their performances are compared via Monte Carlo simulation and tables are given to obtain the median point estimate of the mth future failure time in an easy way.
Point estimation of future failure times of a repairable system
Calabria R;Guida M;Pulcini G
1990
Abstract
In the reliability analysis of a repairable system a problem often encountered concerns making a forecast about the mth future failure time, given that the first n failure times have been observed. A very interesting mathematical idealization for the underlying failure pattern is the Non-homogeneous Poisson Process with a power intensity law. In this paper point estimators, based upon maximum likelihood principle, are derived for the future failure times of such a process. Their performances are compared via Monte Carlo simulation and tables are given to obtain the median point estimate of the mth future failure time in an easy way.File in questo prodotto:
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