Echoes of the past: Agricultural legacies shape the successional dynamics of protected semi-natural dry grasslands

European semi-natural dry grasslands are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems, being recognised ashabitats of community interest by the EU Habitats Directive. The occurrence and preservation of these habitatsdepend on a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors, although little is known regarding the role of pastland-use changes. Here, we investigated the role of time since cultivation abandonment as a major driver ofgrassland successional dynamics in the Mediterranean agro-pastoral system of Alta Murgia, southern Italy. Byintegrating cartographic information on the past agricultural land-use with the main abiotic constraints (patcharea, slope and aspect), we used generalised additive mixed models to test for the probability of occurrence ofcurrent grassland habitat types along time since cultivation abandonment (10 to 200 years). Our results disclosedthe successional sequence of grassland plant communities since crop abandonment in the study area, highlightingthat the distribution of semi-natural grassland communities largely depends on land use history besidescurrent environmental patterns. Among the habitat types protected under the EU Habitats Directive, we highlightedthat xero-thermic communities may represent an intermediate step of grassland succession after cultivationabandonment, while more mesic perennial communities indicate a late successional stage. Thesesuccessional dynamics are further modulated by mesoclimatic conditions associated with slope and aspect, especially in case of long-standing pastures that were not historically affected by agricultural transformations.Our findings can contribute to a deeper understanding of dynamics relevant to spontaneous vegetation recoveryin open environments, which is a prerequisite for setting up effective grassland conservation and restorationactions. Furthermore, our results underline the value of integrating historical maps and current information forthe assessment of habitat conservation status.