Simulating the net primary production of even-aged forests by the use of remote sensing and ecosystem modelling techniques

A recently proposed modelling strategy predicts the net primary production (NPP) of forest ecosystems by combining the outputs of a NDVI-driven model, Modified C-Fix, and a bio-geochemical model, BIOME-BGC. This combination strategy takes into account the effects of forest disturbances but still assumes the presence of a mixture of differently aged trees. The application of this strategy to even-aged forests, therefore, requires a methodological advancement aimed at properly modifying the modelling of main ecosystem processes. In particular, the adaptation of the method to even-aged forests is based on the use of high-spatial-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS) datasets, which yields green and woody biomass estimates that regulate the simulation of photosynthetic and respiratory processes, respectively. This approach was experimented in a Mediterranean study area, San Rossore Regional Park (Central Italy), which is covered by even-aged pine stands in different development phases. The modelling strategy is driven by MODIS NDVI images and meteorological data across five years (2011–2015), which are combined with estimates of forest canopy cover and height obtained from ALS data taken in 2015. This allows the production of stand NPP estimates, which, when converted into respective current annual increment (CAI) values, reasonably reproduce the age dependency of the available ground observations. The CAI estimates also show a highly significant correlation with these observations (r = 0.773) and moderate error levels (RMSE = 2.03 m3 ha−1 year−1, MBE = −0.45 m3 ha−1 year−1). These results confirm the potential of the modified simulation method to yield accurate high-spatial-resolution NPP estimates, which can offer valuable insights into C cycling and storage, in even-aged forests.