Resource ratio and human impact: how diatom assemblages in Lake Maggiore responded to oligotrophication and climatic variability

Diatoms have been often used to track trophic changes from sedimentary records: recent studies demonstrated that these organisms can even be valuable indicators of climatic variability, although it is often difficult to discriminate the role of trophic and climatic drivers. Moving from the hypothesis that oligotrophication and climate affected the composition of the diatom assemblages by changing the resource ratio, we analysed the vernal diatoms succession in Lake Maggiore, between 1984 and 2007, using multivariate techniques (cluster analysis, canonical correspondence analysis, multivariate regression trees), in order to single out the oligotrophication effects from those attributable to climatic variability. Our results point out that Si, TP, temperature and wind emerged as key explanatory variables in species selection, with a stronger link between trophic and climatic drivers after the lake reached a stable oligotrophic status. Peculiar climate-driven events (deep mixing and floods) affected the in-lake Si:P ratio, giving an advantage to diatoms that are excellent P, but poor Si competitors. The classical role of Fragilaria and Tabellaria as early-warning indicators of eutrophication should be reconsidered, taking into account that both can be useful indicators of climate change, when links between their physiological resource needs and environmental data coming from robust limnological investigations can be established.