From training to transformation: co-producing sustainable early warning competence in West Africa

Operational numerical weather prediction in Sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile despite increasing availability of models and data. A key limiting factor is the limited operational and institutional capacity of National Meteorological Services to operate, assess, adapt, and sustain forecasting chains within routine operations for early warning systems. Short-term, tool-oriented training initiatives often fail to address this gap, as learning remains weakly embedded in daily service delivery and rarely translates into sustained operational competence. This paper presents a qualitative case study examining how co-production principles can be operationalized to support the development of operational competence for flood early warning. The study draws on a long-term capacity-development experience involving the National Meteorological Services of Niger and Burkina Faso and the Tuscany Regional Meteorological Service in Italy. The approach combined long-term embedding of trainees within an operational forecasting team, training-of-trainers, and peer-to-peer institutional collaboration, linking learning to real operational workflows. Results are analysed across methodological, operational, and institutional dimensions. Methodological findings show how co-production principles can structure competence-oriented training processes by integrating instructional design, operational practice, and iterative evaluation. Operational results highlight the importance of sustained practice and routine verification, while institutional results point to the role of training of trainers and public institutional collaboration supporting sustainability of competence beyond individual skills and knowledge. By reframing competence as a foundational component of climate services, the study offers transferable insights for capacity development in resource-constrained and transboundary contexts.