Bayesian reliability-growth modeling of repairable mechanical systems

This paper deals with the reliability analysis of a repairable mechanical system undergoing a development program in which modifications are introduced into the system design stage by stage in order to improve reliability. The system reliability is measured through the number of failures that will occur in a given time interval in a fleet of new systems and the failure pattern in each program stage is modeled by a PLP with increasing failure intensity. The use of a Bayesian procedure allows the system reliability to be estimated by combining failure data of current stage with data of previous stages and prior belief on the effectiveness of design changes. A numerical application is provided to illustrate the proposed procedure.